European Intelligence: Russia Prepares to Attack NATO in a Few Months
European intelligence agencies are warning of a high probability that Russia will soon attack NATO to test the Alliance's resolve. As The Guardian writes, they believe that such an attack could happen within a matter of months.
Michal Kodelka, head of the Czech Security and Information Service (BIS), said that in addition to the increased drone activity, the Kremlin's plans could include an invasion of NATO countries bordering Russia. "It's possible. The scenario could include a limited incursion, "fake flag"-type provocations or a large-scale influence-influencing campaign," he says. In his words, such a scenario can play out within "months, not years."
At the same time, representatives of the three Baltic states bordering Russia are more cautious about the likelihood of an invasion or other large-scale escalation. They note that Moscow's resources have been depleted by the conflict in Ukraine, and warn that inciting fear of a possible attack could be in favor of the Kremlin.
"We see no signs of an immediate attack. The question remains open: do they have direct and concrete plans, or is it simply part of their broader attempts to sow fear and uncertainty in Western society?" says Normunds Mezhviets, director general of Latvia's Office of State Security.
According to Kudelka, the current Russian tactic is based on the principle of "escalation in the name of de-escalation": the Kremlin seeks to exploit vulnerabilities in Western societies to weaken support for Ukraine's war effort. "They believe that if tensions escalate enough, European countries will decide to stop supporting Ukraine," he noted. The heads of intelligence officials agreed that no matter how the events unfold, the Russian sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months. Thomas Nilsson, head of Swedish military intelligence and security, described the recent incident with an armed drone at Leipzig Airport - which German authorities have linked to Russian intelligence operations - as a "turning point."
"Sending an armed drone to a busy airport in the heart of Europe... If it comes to attacks that can lead to casualties or destruction of critical infrastructure - with huge consequences for society - then I think it changes the rules of the game," he says. According to Nilsson, behind the recent growth of Russian sabotage actions are several goals: weakening support for Ukraine, sowing a schism in NATO and intimidating the European population. Kudelka noted that another consequence of the sabotage campaign is the excessive burden on the resources of the security services. "Now any fire or malfunction requires an investigation by the security services as a potential terrorist act, and this is advantageous for them," he said.